The United Nations Security Council is preparing for a crucial decision on Western Sahara between October 30 and 31, when the mandate of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) is set to expire. Established in 1991 to organize a self-determination referendum for the Sahrawi people, the mission now stands at a crossroads.
What was once a routine annual renewal has turned this year into a major diplomatic showdown, marked by a U.S.-drafted resolution that openly breaks with the decolonization framework applied for half a century.
According to diplomatic and media sources in New York, Washington, acting as the penholder on the file, circulated its draft on October 22, sparking sharp divisions among Council members. An extraordinary consultation on October 24 confirmed the depth of disagreement.
The American text introduces unprecedented elements: it confines future negotiations to the Moroccan autonomy plan of 2007, praises the “efforts of President Donald Trump” in promoting regional normalization, and calls for a direct U.S. mediation role—effectively shifting the peace process out of the UN’s multilateral framework and into the orbit of the White House, in the style of “deal diplomacy” seen in the Middle East.
This shift comes just weeks after the publication of Secretary-General António Guterres’s annual report on Western Sahara (S/2025/612, September 30). While couched in technical language, the report highlights the UN’s growing loss of credibility in managing the conflict.
It avoids identifying Morocco as the party that broke the 1991 ceasefire but acknowledges “low-intensity armed clashes” and details violations undermining Morocco’s alleged neutrality—such as the construction of a 93-kilometre road by the occupying army linking Smara to Mauritania across the demilitarized berm, in breach of the 1991 agreements.
The report also notes Morocco’s continued restrictions on MINURSO operations, its obstruction of the UN Human Rights Office since 2015, and systematic repression in the occupied territories. Yet the Secretary-General refrains from drawing political conclusions, instead repeating the vague formula of a “realistic and durable political solution,” a phrase beloved by Rabat’s allies.
Faced with this climate of ambiguity and complacency, the POLISARIO Front raised its voice. On October 22, President Brahim Ghali sent a firm letter to Guterres denouncing the UN’s passive complicity with Morocco’s occupation and impunity.
Ghali recalled that Morocco violated the ceasefire on November 13, 2020, at El Guerguerat and has since consolidated its illegal military presence in the buffer zone. The letter accuses the UN of tolerating Moroccan drone strikes on Sahrawi civilians and neighboring nationals, turning a blind eye to repression in the occupied territories, and remaining silent on annexation-driven infrastructure.
“The UN cannot act as a real-estate agency redistributing land,” wrote Ghali, “but must behave as the institution charged with upholding international law.”
On October 23, POLISARIO’s representative to the UN, Dr. Sidi Mohamed Omar, addressed an official letter to Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia, Russia’s UN envoy and rotating Council president, outlining POLISARIO’s rejection of the U.S. draft. Omar denounced a text that “represents a grave and unprecedented deviation—not only from the principles of international law framing Western Sahara as a decolonization issue, but also from the Security Council’s own established practices.”
He reaffirmed that sovereignty over the territory rests solely with the Sahrawi people, who hold an “inalienable, imprescriptible and non-negotiable” right to self-determination under UN supervision.
The October 24 consultations confirmed these concerns. Russia deemed the U.S. text “unacceptable,” arguing it distorts historical facts and erases the colonial nature of the conflict. Moscow demanded revision of paragraph 4 to restore the founding principles of self-determination and recognition of Western Sahara as a non-self-governing territory pending decolonization.
Algeria, meanwhile, intensified its diplomatic efforts to prevent the final text from legitimizing the Moroccan occupation. The session ended without consensus and with minimal support for the U.S. draft, exposing a Council more fractured than ever. The final vote on MINURSO’s renewal is expected on October 30, following further consultations.
According to ECSAHARAUI, reporting from New York, the U.S. draft resolution remains unchanged, despite amendments proposed by Russia and Algeria.
The so-called “zero draft” continues to present the Moroccan autonomy plan as the only “credible and realistic” framework for resolving the conflict—while avoiding any explicit mention of the UN-mandated self-determination referendum or the colonial status of the territory.
During the extraordinary consultations of October 24 and 27, Russia and China condemned the text as “unbalanced and contrary to international law.”
Algeria proposed adding a clear reference to the Sahrawi people’s right to freely decide their future through a UN-supervised referendum, while Moscow called for reinforcing MINURSO’s mandate to its original scope.
Washington, however, kept the text unchanged and is now preparing to submit it to the Council presidency for the scheduled October 30 vote.
Sources cited by ECSAHARAUI indicate that only the United States and France currently support the draft, while China, Russia and Algeria are likely to abstain or even veto it. Other members are exploring compromise language to avoid an open rift within the Council.
This development validates POLISARIO’s warnings, as the movement reiterated it will not take part in any process based on Morocco’s autonomy plan, which it views as “voiding the principle of self-determination of all meaning” and lacking any legal legitimacy.
On the eve of the vote, the Security Council faces a historic dilemma: to renew a mission hollowed out by great-power pressure, or to restore international legality by completing Western Sahara’s long-delayed decolonization.
POLISARIO, recognized by both the UN and the African Union as the legitimate representative of the Sahrawi people, has stated unequivocally that it will reject any political framework or negotiation grounded on the U.S. text.
In his letter, Sidi Mohamed Omar stressed that any approach limiting or replacing the referendum is unacceptable. He also recalled that on October 20, POLISARIO had already submitted to the Secretary-General an “expanded proposal” to resume direct talks with Morocco, in good faith and without preconditions, within the parameters of UN and General Assembly resolutions.
Many observers welcomed that initiative as a sign of political responsibility—one ignored by the very actors now pushing autonomy as the “only possible solution.”
Positions within the Council have become starkly polarized. France and the United Kingdom back the U.S. initiative and its discourse of “political realism,” while Russia, China, Algeria and several African states defend adherence to international law and the decolonization framework.
The most likely scenario remains a deadlock, with a possible veto or a chain of abstentions preventing the nine votes required for adoption. As the MINURSO mandate expires on October 31, the Council must now choose: renew a mission emptied of purpose, or restore its original goal — guaranteeing the Sahrawi people the referendum they were promised.
Beyond all diplomatic calculations, the underlying issue remains unchanged.
The UN has allowed a mission designed to free a colonized people to become an instrument of the status quo.
As President Brahim Ghali wrote, “The time for ambiguity is over.”
By rejecting any attempt to substitute autonomy for self-determination, the POLISARIO Front reaffirms that there can be no peace without justice, and no justice without freedom.
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